Middle East Scenarios - Base, Bears and Bulls
The heightened instability in the Middle East continues to influence the global market outlook, particularly through energy supply risks and inflation pressures. Our scenario analysis below sets out three potential paths - our base case (what we expect), the bear case and the bull case - each with differing implications for inflation, economic growth and market sentiment.
Across each of the scenarios, any portfolio changes we consider will be firmly based around our data driven investment process. The scenarios illustrate how different environments might affect positioning, but all decisions will continue to follow observed data, evolving risks and long term client outcomes.
The situation remains highly fluid and is continually evolving, therefore our underlying view may change also. In addition, this scenario analysis does not take into account other potential market risks or opportunities and is solely focused on the conflict in the Middle East.
As always, we recommend looking through the noise and retaining a long-term investment perspective despite short-term increases in volatility. Often the best days follow the worst days in markets and therefore remaining invested and not panicking can be key to achieving your long-term financial objectives.
